 ISSN 0235-7208
|
2010 m. Nr. 2
 The uncertainty of oil price forecasts
Algirdas KUPRYS
The Annual Energy Administration publication “Annual Energy Outlook” provides long-term oil price forecasts, which generally deny previous oil price forecasts. The purpose of this work was to assess the adequacy of oil price forecasts. A number of models used in oil price forecasts to assess and determine the indicators influencing the oil price change have been reviewed. In assessing long-term forecasts of oil prices, two different models were considered: multi-regressive and artificial neural networks. The resulting predicted oil prices were compared with the International Energy Agency oil price predictions.
Keywords: oil price forecasts, artificial neural networks, multiple regression
|
Numeriai:
2011 - T.57 Nr.1, Nr.2, Nr.3, Nr.42010 - T.56 Nr.1, Nr.2, Nr.3-42009 - T.55 Nr.1, Nr.2, Nr.3, Nr.42008 - T.54 Nr.1, Nr.2, Nr.3, Nr.42007 - T.53 Nr.1, Nr.2, Nr.3, Nr.42006 Nr.1, Nr.2, Nr.3, Nr.42005 Nr.1, Nr.2, Nr.3, Nr.42004 Nr.1, Nr.2, Nr.3, Nr.42003 Nr.1, Nr.2, Nr.3, Nr.42002 Nr.1, Nr.2, Nr.3, Nr.42001 Nr.1, Nr.2, Nr.3, Nr.4 |